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PowerLines by Linnea Brush
December 3, 2001
Let the Good Times Roll - The Recession Has Been Announced!
Power Channels: Batteries and Portable Power, Switch-Mode Power, Automotive Electronics, Power Quality Protection, Renewable Energy, Communications Power, Motion Control, Power Components
One of the vagaries of economics is that is that once a recession is announced, it is usually over. Or at least close to being over. The National Bureau of Economic Research's Business Cycle Dating Committee has officially declared that the U.S. economy went into a recession in March, 2001. That means that recovery - if not already here - is probably only months away.
Only two U.S recessions since World War II have lasted longer than a year (both 16 months). The average is 11 months; the shortest was six months. Economic recovery is very possibly going on right now, although it's always good to keep in mind that everything lags in economics. It's like an "economic echo effect" - you won't hear (or feel) the actual economic effects until 6-8 months after they've happened.
But there's news that points to a possible recovery for power supply manufacturers next year. Fairchild Semiconductor recently reported their third quarter results. Semiconductor sector activity always presages power supply activity. When semiconductor sales are up, this usually means OEM system sales are up, which means OEM power supply sales will go up, too.
Fairchild indicated that their bookings "had improved 23% sequentially, and our book-to-bill ratio for the quarter was slightly greater than 1:1." The company said that the ratio may drop in December and January due to seasonal decline, but that Fairchild's backlog is building for the first quarter. This is very good news, indeed.
So the big question is: What is causing this? Are there certain segments that are (finally) starting to show some turnaround? Everyone is looking for the segments where recovery will occur first, and what will stimulate longer-term opportunities. Fairchild's CEO, Joe Martin, reported that pricing was slightly stronger in October, and "aggressive pricing has always marked the beginning of the end of the downturn" [in semiconductor cycles].
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We would like to hear your comments on the topics discussed in this column. We welcome the opportunity to publish opposing opinions. Please email Jeff Shepard at jshepard@darnell.com.
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