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PowerLines by Linnea Brush
August 1, 2011
Power System Apocalypse
Power Channels: Batteries and Portable Power, Communications Power, Smart Grid Power, Switch-Mode Power
Whenever anyone uses the words, “the end of…” I both notice and smirk. Many things end eventually (I was reading about the “end” of the IBM Selectric typewriter today, for instance), but proclaiming the end of something before its time makes me pause and doubt. One that has me thinking, however, is: “FCC considering exploring ‘end dates’ for the PSTN.” This sounds eerily like a telecommunications apocalypse, where people have to examine their core beliefs and decide what side of the wireline/wireless fence they fall.
The telecom prophecy comes from the Technical Advisory Council (TAC) to the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), delivered in June, 2011. The Working Group made certain recommendations to the FCC, who must now decide what to do. It’s never easy being given predictions that can drastically alter the future, particularly ones that affect the entire communications infrastructure. TAC was very clear about its suppositions, however.
The following points were presented to support the “erosion” of the PSTN (public switched telephone network – what the entire US wireline network is based on):
• By 2014, the United States will have fewer than 42 million access lines.
• By 2014, US consumers will have 31.6 million Voice-over-IP (VoIP) lines, accounting for 42.5% of all US access lines.
• More than 25% of US consumers aged 18 or older have already given up their voice landline for voice wireless-only service.
• By 2018, only 6% of the US population is expected to be served by the legacy PSTN.
Consumer preferences are remarkably fickle, so one of the more important statements made by TAC is, “The transition will be driven by when government subsidies to the PSTN end.” Indeed, the economic impact was one of the major points addressed by the “Critical Legacy Transition Working Group.” Critical legacy transition sounds rather ominous.
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We would like to hear your comments on the topics discussed in this column. We welcome the opportunity to publish opposing opinions. Please email Jeff Shepard at jshepard@darnell.com.
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