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PowerLines by Linnea Brush

Linnea Brush March 5, 2012

Announcing Technologies "On Schedule"

Power Channels: Batteries and Portable Power, Digital Power, Energy Efficiency, Power Components, Renewable Energy, Smart Grid Power, Switch-Mode Power

When it comes to forecasting emerging technologies, there is more than simply “projecting the future.” Most forecasts are based on sales of existing or equivalent products, and that is certainly a valid starting point. But where do you go from there? How can you forecast technologies and markets that don’t even exist yet?

A key element to predicting the future is having a solid understanding of the present. This includes not just product sales, but what Darnell calls “enabling” technologies. In other words, what technologies already exist that are finally coming together in a new way to open up completely new markets? Such convergences don’t happen every day, and they are hard to predict. And when they do come together, the opportunities are frequently time-dependent. In other words, the window is suddenly open but could close (or become a bit more opaque) just as suddenly.

A market forecast has to anticipate and see all these factors converging at the right moment and then present a valid analysis of the new markets that are being produced. Identifying “emerging trends” simply means seeing them before others do. A good example is digital power, which has hit the news lately with headlines such as, “Digital Power Goes Mainstream.” A few years ago, digital control was anything but mainstream. Darnell predicted in 2006 that it would be a mainstream technology by the end of 2011. And it has, right on schedule.

Not only that, digital power has become an enabling technology in its own right. A key factor in going mainstream is bringing down the cost of the new technology. This is what Darnell used to project when digital power would become competitive with analog solutions. And it has become cheap enough that it can now be used, not only in a variety of applications, but as an enabler of other emerging technologies, such as advanced power measurement and devices being targeted for the smart grid.

Power measurement is one of those existing technologies that is difficult to implement and not necessarily needed, anyway. With energy efficiency in the limelight, however, anything that can help reduce costs is being considered. A “perfect storm” of energy efficiency trends, sophisticated IC technology, and low-cost digital control has opened up a market for advanced power measurement functions in ac-dc power supplies, for example. Such features would not have been possible even five years ago, but the opportunity is there now.

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We would like to hear your comments on the topics discussed in this column. We welcome the opportunity to publish opposing opinions. Please email Jeff Shepard at jshepard@darnell.com.

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